Five Post-NH Primary Facts

Fact 1: Romney's impressive 39% win in New Hampshire netted him only 4-5 delegates out of the 1,144 necessary to win the nomination. That means he leads 2nd place Santorum by only .0035% of the total delegates needed. Game still on.

Fact 2: Ron Paul cannot win the Republican nomination. This is so for two additional facts. First, the overwhelming majority of Republicans would vote for any Republican other than Paul. Secondly, a significant majority of Paul's supporters in Iowa and New Hampshire are Democrats or independents who crossed over to vote in these two open states. Such Democrat and independent voters will not be able to cross over in the majority of Republican primaries which are otherwise closed. Moreover, one suspects that some of the Democrats voting for Paul are actually staunch Obama supporters who are trying to thwart the Republican primaries, and who will vote for Obama in the general election. Statistically, Paul cannot win a majority of delegates to secure the nomination.

Fact 3: About 20% of the votes were for conservative candidates, high enough to have given third place to the conservative candidate if voters had coalesced behind one. This high percentage is especially noteworthy considering how liberal New Hampshire is and that the lower half of the state is heavily influenced by media in Romney's home state.

Fact 4: South Carolina is much more conservative than New Hampshire, making a Romney win in South Carolina far from certain.

Fact 5: If conservatives do not get behind one candidate in South Carolina, Romney will win.