Republicans want to nominate a candidate who can beat Barak Obama. Few pundits, however, have considered the electoral college map. On this issue, the clear advantage goes to Sen. Rick Santorum. Here's why.
First, we should note that some swing states can be won by any of the Republican candidates. These include Florida, and some pinkish states that have been Republican strongholds in the past but where Obama did well in 2008, such as North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. None of the Republican candidates will have an advantage over the others in winning these states. I suppose Romney could claim an advantage in appealing to moderate voters in these states, but such a claim would also undermine his assertion that he is the most consistent conservative. But in the end, I doubt that any one of the candidates (now--only Gingrich, Romney, Santorum) has a special appeal to any of these states.
In the past, candidates pushed their case by claiming they can deliver their home state. But for 2012, any Republican can deliver Newt's Georgia, but not Romney probably cannot deliver Massachusetts. But what about Santorum's state of Pennsylvania?
Delivering Pennsylvania would be huge. Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican president since 1988, but combining Pennsylvania with the traditional red-leaning states is a winning formula for Republicans.
The other swing states are in the midwest. These include Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. All the candidates have an economic plan, but only Santorum has one that appeals to the manufacturing sector. Santorum would likely deliver Ohio, but may very well steal two or three of the other manufacturing states from Obama. Because of his Made in America economic plan, Santorum will have a stronger appeal to Reagan Democrats than any of the other candidates http://theo-politico.blogspot.com/2011/12/santorums-made-in-america-economic-plan.html
Santorum's appeal to Reagan Democrats and the manufacturing sector in Ohio and the blue states of PA, MI, IL, and WI is a scenario that Democrats most fear, as reflected in Obama's 10 minute emphasis on manufacturing in his State of the Union speech. Any other Republican would have to scramble hither and yon to eek out a victory in 2012. But for Santorum, the roadmap to the White House is very clear: OH and PA, with MI and WI also in play as a security net.
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