Five Essential Narrative Points for SuperTuesday: A Retrospect and a Prospect

SuperTuesday Narrative:

Santorum (brown) takes most Ohio Counties

The breathtaking sweep of the SuperTuesday elections will undoubtedly yield many stories which will need interpretation. There are, however, five main points in any credible SuperTuesday narrative.

First, Mitt cannot seal the deal. Not even by spending $12 million in two weeks in one state. Not even with the benefit of the Dele-GATE scandal by which he has manipulated either delegate rules or campaign momentum by unscrupulous party misdeeds in Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan. Not even with the support of media giants Fox and Drudge. Not even with the endorsement of major party leaders.

Secondly, Rick is here to stay. Nothing has been easy for Santorum. Yet, he has weathered the blistering unleashed on him by Romney’s campaign treasure chest in every state contest. Romney outspent Santorum 6:1 in Romney’s home turf in Michigan, yet Rick wrestled him to a tie. Again, Romney outspent Santorum 12:1 in Ohio, and again Rick wrestled him to a tie. In both states, Rick did so even though his conservative base was split with Newt, which brings up the third narrative point.

Thirdly, at this point, Mitt’s best friend is Newt who is effectively preventing Rick from competing one-on-one with Mitt, a contest which Rick would clearly win. Newt’s southern strategy is kaput, with key states having been won by Santorum (Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee), and polling favorably for Santorum (Mississippi, Alabama, North Carolina).  Santorum has won recent significant straw polls in Texas and is likely to win the important North Shore Tea Party straw poll this weekend in Louisiana. Since there is little more that Newt can accomplish by staying in the race, except to ensure a Romney win, one can only speculate that his continuation is designed to help pad his future conference speaking schedule and book contracts. Newt is quickly in danger of exchanging his reputation as the failed Speaker of the House with the equally onerous title of spoiler for the moderate candidate.

Fourthly, back to Romney and his profligate, Obama-like spending spree. The Romney campaign did not anticipate having to spend so much money at this point in the primary season, and has little left to continue its win-by-smear ad campaign. Fund raising numbers are about to come out for February, and the Romney campaign may be embarrassed to find itself having raised less money than the Santorum campaign. This will have a psychological effect on supporters, especially as they watch Romney resort to writing loan checks from his personal account to his campaign. Apparently, money can NOT buy an election, although it goes very far in keeping someone else from winning.

 

Fifthly, the vastly underfunded, underorganized Santorum campaign demonstrates how much a poorly equipped band of volunteers can do through hard work if they have a capable, relentless candidate with the right ideas. One can hardly avoid an analogy with Gen. Washington and his unprofessional, poorly outfitted army going up against the world’s superpower in the late 1700s. Nothing has been easy for Santorum, and victory is still not in hand. Yet with hardly a moment’s rest, he is off today for a Kansas noon event and to Mississippi for two more events later today in an effort to secure the nomination, just as Gen. Washington pushed on to Princeton after Trenton.

All in all, it was a bad SuperTuesday for Mitt, a great day for Rick, and a devastating day for Newt. It could have been worse or better for either Mitt or Rick. But the draw goes not to the front-runner, but to his opponent.