Republicans want to nominate a candidate who can beat Barak Obama. Few pundits, however, have considered the electoral college map. On this issue, the clear advantage goes to Sen. Rick Santorum. Here's why.
First, we should note that some swing states can be won by any of the Republican candidates. These include Florida, and some pinkish states that have been Republican strongholds in the past but where Obama did well in 2008, such as North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. None of the Republican candidates will have an advantage over the others in winning these states. I suppose Romney could claim an advantage in appealing to moderate voters in these states, but such a claim would also undermine his assertion that he is the most consistent conservative. But in the end, I doubt that any one of the candidates (now--only Gingrich, Romney, Santorum) has a special appeal to any of these states.
In the past, candidates pushed their case by claiming they can deliver their home state. But for 2012, any Republican can deliver Newt's Georgia, but not Romney probably cannot deliver Massachusetts. But what about Santorum's state of Pennsylvania?
Delivering Pennsylvania would be huge. Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican president since 1988, but combining Pennsylvania with the traditional red-leaning states is a winning formula for Republicans.
The other swing states are in the midwest. These include Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. All the candidates have an economic plan, but only Santorum has one that appeals to the manufacturing sector. Santorum would likely deliver Ohio, but may very well steal two or three of the other manufacturing states from Obama. Because of his Made in America economic plan, Santorum will have a stronger appeal to Reagan Democrats than any of the other candidates http://theo-politico.blogspot.com/2011/12/santorums-made-in-america-economic-plan.html
Santorum's appeal to Reagan Democrats and the manufacturing sector in Ohio and the blue states of PA, MI, IL, and WI is a scenario that Democrats most fear, as reflected in Obama's 10 minute emphasis on manufacturing in his State of the Union speech. Any other Republican would have to scramble hither and yon to eek out a victory in 2012. But for Santorum, the roadmap to the White House is very clear: OH and PA, with MI and WI also in play as a security net.
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To be fair, I think Romney does bring something to the table for several swing states: NH, ME, NV, AZ, CO. The first two are close to home. The last three have lots of LDS.
Who are Mormons more likely to support? A Mormon who is lukewarm on issues of deep concern to them such as pro-life, traditional marriage, or a non-Mormon who has those core values written into his DNA?
Interestingly, Richard Land, who is the Southern Baptist elected leader on public policy said that Southern Baptists would be more inclined to vote for Romney if Romney were MORE Mormon on the social issues.
I think that it would be a wash out in those Mormon states between a moderate Mormon and a thoroughly social conservative who is not Mormon.
This is a fundamentally flawed analysis in that it assumes Rick would carry PA. He didnt win re-election in Pa because he cant win in the heavily populated suburbs of Philly and Pittsburgh where his social conservative views dont play as well. I like Rick and agree with him regarding abortion, but this election is about the economy, not social issues. But the Democrats would LOVE it to be about social issues in order to take it off their dismal stewardship of the economy.
@Rev Leonard - Romeny has already stated he intends on proposing a constitutional amendment bamnning Gay marriage. Everyone in California knows that it was the Mormon Church that poured $millions into California to defeat the Gay marriage amendment there - along with a lot of help from African-American Obama Democrats - the measure was defeated. So you see, Romney is pro-life and for traditional marriage and tithes $millions every year to his Church - he's a good Mormon. But I like the fact that he is moderate in other areas. His father fought a twenty year long battle with the Mormon Church to allow blacks and minorities to become members of the church, and he also walked out of the 1964 GOP nominating convention over his differences with Barry Goldwater opposing civil rights legislation. Here is the article:
Romney Promises To Propose Constitutional Amendment Banning Gay Marriage | The New Civil Rights Move
thenewcivilrightsmovement.com
Mitt Romney says he would “propose and promote” a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in the U.S., and attacked Obama’s supposed war on religion.
I have a number of LDS friends (comes from living in Idaho and Eastern WA), and they are hands down all Romney supporters. Small sample size to be sure, but from what I've observed they place religion over social issues when it comes to one of their own. The results in NV today validate that (plus the fact that they keep reelecting Reid). NV is something like 10% LDS, and higher than that among active voters. That will be big come November.
Mind you, I would much prefer Rick wins, but Romney realistically does have the advantage over any other Republican for the LDS vote. Nevada is the state that matters most, and it could come to play in AZ, CO and NM (UT and ID are so conservative they don't factor in.
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